Newsom: 56% of California projected to be infected with coronavirus in 8-week period

美國加州州長紐松在疫情持續延燒之際,揭露一項令人擔憂的預估數據,在未來8週內,加州約4000萬人口中,可能超過半數會感染2019冠狀病毒疾病(COVID-19)。

「今日美國報」(USA Today)報導,紐森(Gavin Newsom)向總統川普要求聯邦政府伸出援手,這項預估數字是他的聲明一部分,他也致信給國會,要求10億美元防疫資金。

紐森揭露的驚人數據是根據加州的估算,他在今天寄給川普的信中做了概述。

紐森在信中寫道:「我們預估約56%的加州人口,也就是2550萬人,會在未來8週內感染病毒。」

他要求川普立即派遣海軍醫療艦「仁慈號」(USNS Mercy)到洛杉磯,並讓船艦停泊當地到9月,以紓解醫院的壓力。

California Gov. Gavin Newsom requested a hospital ship from the federal government Thursday afternoon, citing a shocking projection from state officials.

Newsom expects 56 percent of California’s population, a whopping 25.5 million people, will be infected over an eight-week period this spring. He did not say whether the projection covered the next eight weeks, a period that has already begun or a future period.

Newsom’s letter to President Trump cited 126 new cases statewide in the last 24 hours, an increase of 21 percent, and said the case rate has been doubling every four days.

The letter requested that the U.S. Navy work with California’s Office of Emergency Services to send the USNS Mercy Hospital Ship to the port of Los Angeles through Sept. 1 of this year.

Newsom’s huge projection of spread may seem outlandish, but it tracks with other projections from mathematical modelers studying the outbreak, according to Arthur Reingold, division head of epidemiology and biostatistics at UC Berkeley.

“Is it plausible? Is it possible? Yes. Should we be planning for the worst while hoping for the best? I think that’s what the governor is trying to do,” Reingold said.

“We need to plan for something as dire as that in terms of hospital beds, testing, ventilator, to try and convince people that this is a serious problem.”

Reingold pointed out that that figure represents the number of people infected, not the number who may show symptoms or require a hospital visit.

“If we’re talking about the population that will get infected, some proportion of that will not get sick and a lot of those who do get sick will be with a mild, self-limited illness,” he said.

Even recognizing that projection does not require 25.5 million hospital beds, or anywhere close to that many. Still, if just a fraction of that projection become seriously ill, “that is a really big number,” Reingold said.

The Bay Area has been an epicenter for the outbreak in America, anchored by 189 total cases in Santa Clara County, including six deaths.

Due to contagion concerns on the ship’s tight quarters, the ship may not be used to treat patients with the coronavirus. Instead, it may be a facility to treat patients will many other medical needs.
“This resource will help decompress the health care delivery system to allow the Los Angeles region to ensure that it has the ability to address critical acute care needs, such as heart attacks and strokes or vehicle accidents, in addition to the rapid rise in COVID-19 cases,” the letter read.